The USD/TRY pair, a frontline for emerging market risk, trades at 34.50 on November 12, 2025, down 0.2% from yesterday in a 34.40-34.60 range. With $2 billion daily volume, it’s a hotspot for traders navigating Turkey’s 68% inflation and 50% central bank rate. This USD/TRY chart isn’t smooth—it’s jagged with policy shocks and carry trade flows. In a $7.5 trillion forex market, it offers high-probability setups for those who read it right. Volatility at 1-2% daily spikes on Banxico or Fed news, creating 100-200 pip opportunities. This article teaches you to decode the chart for consistent trades.
Core Chart Elements for USD/TRY
Start with price action. At 34.50, USD/TRY tests 21-day EMA support at 34.30, with 50-day at 34.00. RSI at 48 is neutral, MACD shows bearish crossover, hinting at downside if 34.30 breaks.
Volume is key. $2 billion daily is high, but 120% spikes on rate news confirm moves. Low volume in 34.40-34.60 range signals consolidation.
Support/resistance drives setups. 34.00 is psychological, 35.00 round-number resistance. Fibonacci from 33.50 lows aligns 38.2% at 34.20 for entries.
High-Probability Setups on the USD/TRY Chart
Carry Trade Longs: With 46.2% differential (US 3.8% vs Turkey 50%), buy at 34.30 EMA support, targeting 34.80, stops at 34.10. Roll daily for yield.
Breakout Shorts: Short below 34.30 on Banxico hike news, aiming 34.00, confirmed by 120% volume. Stops at 34.50.
Range Bounces: In 34.40-34.60, buy support, sell resistance. RSI below 40 for buys, above 60 for shorts. 20-pip targets, 10-pip stops.
| Setup | Entry | Target | Stop | Confirmation |
| Carry Long | 34.30 EMA | 34.80 | 34.10 | Differential >45% |
| Breakout Short | Below 34.30 | 34.00 | 34.50 | 120% volume spike |
| Range Bounce | 34.40 support | 34.60 | 34.30 | RSI <40 |
Risk Management and Market Context
Volatility demands discipline. Risk 1% per trade—$100 on $10,000 account for 100-pip stops. Leverage 5x max; 50x wipes on 2% swings.
Context is crucial. Banxico’s 50% rate holds carry, but Fed cuts narrow differentials. Monitor CPI (Turkey 68%, US 2.7%) and DXY (103) for shifts.
Avoid news traps. FOMC at 2 PM EST or Banxico at 11 PM EST spark 1% moves—wait for candle closes.
Conclusion
The USD/TRY chart at 34.50 on November 12, 2025, offers high-probability setups in Turkey’s 68% inflation storm. Carry longs at 34.30 EMA, breakout shorts below support, and range bounces in 34.40-34.60 deliver 50-100 pip gains. Use RSI, volume, and 1% risk with 5x leverage. In 2025’s EM volatility, USD/TRY isn’t chaos—it’s opportunity for disciplined traders.
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